Blog
05 17, 2024
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On April 25, 2024, the Midcontinent ISO (MISO) unveiled the outcomes of their Planning Resource Auction (PRA) for the 2024/2025 delivery year, shedding light on the dynamic state of the energy landscape in the region. For the second year in a row, MISO has utilized their seasonal capacity framework to plan for sufficient resources, ensuring they deliver reliable power to 45 million energy users across 15 U.S. states and Manitoba, Canada.
The purpose of the MISO PRA is slightly different when compared to capacity auctions in other regions. Because MISO is comprised largely of vertically integrated and regulated utilities, most capacity planning decisions are made between utilities and state regulators years in advance and outside of the auction process. This long-term capacity planning model is designed to avoid any capacity shortfalls and has historically helped to keep capacity prices in the market very low, but there are fleeting exceptions.
Our team has analyzed the results of the 2024/2025 PRA and in this blog, we share our key takeaways in addition to commentary on MISO’s capacity market pricing trends. You’ll learn what these outcomes signify and what they mean for organizations like yours who are already participating in demand response, have enrolled for the 2024/2025 year and will begin participation on June 1, or are considering participating in the future.
The results of the 2024/2025 PRA
The PRA results underscore the localized nature of capacity deficits and the nuanced factors driving them. They are also an accurate reflection of just how dynamic and volatile this landscape can be – and how the results can change drastically with each delivery year. For instance, this year’s results unveiled flat pricing across most zones – except for a staggering spike in Zone 5 (Missouri).
All zones across the region (except Zone 5) cleared at:
- $30/MW-day for the Summer
- $15/MW-day for the Fall
- $0.75/MW-day for the Winter
- $34.10/MW-day for the Spring
However, in Zone 5 (Missouri), pricing for the Fall and Spring jumped significantly from the 2023/2024 pricing of $15/MW-day and $10/MW-day, respectively, to nearly $720/MW-day for both seasons in the 2024/2025 results.
Below is a high-level summary of the pricing results:
| All Zones (Except Zone 5) | Zone 5 | |
|---|---|---|
| Summer | $30/MW-day | $30/MW-day |
| Fall | $15/MW-day | $719.81/MW-day |
| Winter | $0.75/MW-day | $0.75/MW-day |
| Spring | $34.10/MW-day | $719.81/MW-day |
For a deeper dive into each zone and their coverage on the U.S. map:
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What factors led to these results?
The root cause of these fluctuations lies in capacity surpluses and shortfalls relative to planning requirements to ensure grid reliability. This year’s PRA results demonstrated that most zones across the MISO region have sufficient capacity. MISO’s footprint, for the most part, saw a 30% decrease in surplus capacity, but capacity remained adequate relative to planning requirements to ensure grid reliability.
However, Missouri faces a capacity deficit of 872 MW in the Spring and Fall seasons. In Missouri's case, there is inadequate capacity to meet a higher Local Clearing Requirement – resulting in a capacity deficiency and therefore higher pricing. This capacity shortfall is due to a variety of reasons, including:
- Power plant retirements
- Planned power plant maintenance
- Seasonal outages
- Higher electric demand
- Tighter limit on imports
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It’s important to note the seasonal variations in capacity needs for Missouri. The above factors are contributing to capacity deficits in the Fall and Spring, however there is sufficient capacity in the Winter and Summer. In the Winter, for instance, there is a lower Local Clearing Requirement, which is driven by factors like lower demand and a higher import limit. You can see this fluctuation in capacity needs visualized in the below chart.
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What types of resources cleared in the PRA?
Despite conventional generation still comprising most of the capacity, renewable energy sources like wind and solar continue to gain traction, with notable increases in cleared capacity. Demand response and natural gas also play significant roles in meeting demand, reflecting a diverse resource mix crucial for grid stability.
Some key facts and figures:
- Solar increased by 61% (3 GW to 4.9 GW)
- Wind increased by 4% (5.0 GW to 5.2 GW)
- Wind and solar have a combined cleared capacity of 10.1 GW
- Demand response cleared at 8,000 MW in Summer but 6,800 MW in Fall, Winter, and Spring
- Natural gas capacity cleared 57,800 MW for the Summer
What steps should your organization take now?
It’s important for organizations to understand that while pricing may look one way one year, it could look completely different the next. As we discussed already, a variety of factors can contribute to capacity surpluses and shortfalls. This fluctuation shows just how dynamic and volatile this landscape can be, how each year it can look drastically different, and how there is even seasonal variation in requirements and available capacity throughout the year.
We discussed Missouri pricing increases specifically, but there were increases and decreases in other zones as well, further demonstrating volatility:
- All zones except Zone 9: capacity prices in the Winter fell to $0.75/MW-day from $2/MW-day last year
- Zone 9: capacity prices in the Winter fell to $0.75/MW-day from $18.88/MW-day last year
- All Zones: capacity prices for the Summer roughly tripled to $30/MW-day
- All Zones except Zone 5: capacity prices for the Spring season roughly tripled to $34.10/MW-day
While we’ve seen some spikes in pricing in Missouri for this upcoming season, historical trends suggest a potential deflation and market stabilization as we approach 2025/2026. Our team analyzed MISO PRA pricing in 3 regions – Zone 4 (Illinois), Zone 5 (Missouri), and Zone 7 (Michigan) from the 2019/2020 delivery year to the 2024/2025 delivery year. Below are the results of that analysis.
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This chart shows the boom-and-bust nature of the MISO PRA prices. This boom-and-bust nature is due, in part, to the auction mechanics of the PRA. The auction uses a nearly vertical demand curve – meaning there is very little value ascribed to any capacity surplus relative to requirements, and prices spike with any shortage. Given this historical data, we would expect that Zone 5 (Missouri) prices to be near the floor next year.
When making decisions about whether to participate in demand response, change your enrollment, or make any rash decisions given market results, it’s important to take a step back and think big picture. This is the nature of the energy landscape. It’s dynamic. And it’s important to understand and appreciate that there will be seasonal variations – and a wide variety of factors contribute to those variations.
Our recommendation is to find a long-term partner that can help you navigate this dynamic landscape – and offer stability and guidance amid the chaos.
Conclusion
MISO’s PRA results offer valuable insights into the complexities of the energy market, highlighting the importance of adaptability and collaboration in ensuring grid reliability. As organizations navigate these challenges, strategic partnerships will remain essential in building a sustainable energy future and maximizing the value of flexible assets.
Our recommendation is to look simply beyond market pricing: look to develop long-term partnerships that offer long-term value, market expertise, transparency around opportunities and expectations, transparency in revenue earnings, and stability. Enel North America, for instance, has strategic partnerships with Ameren Illinois and Ameren Missouri, offering stability and expertise amidst market fluctuations. As the global leader in demand response, Enel has the resources to help you drive value from your energy flexibility via demand response programs in the MISO region, with personalized energy reduction plans, deep market expertise, and a team by your side every step of the way, with your company’s best interests at heart. Contact our team today to learn more about participating in demand response in MISO.
